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Hong Kong CNN —It’s been a rollercoaster week for stocks trading in mainland China and Hong Kong. “For a sustained rally in China stocks, we think China will need to address the core of these concerns (predominantly property sector issues and US-China tensions),” the analysts added. In the 7 days to January 24, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking Chinese stocks recorded large inflows of $12.6 billion, according to a Citi survey of global fund managers. Still, investors have been fleeing Chinese stocks over a much longer period because they are worried about the country’s economic prospects. The country is facing the prospect of a vicious cycle whereby lower demand leads to lower investment, lower production and lower income, thus causing even lower demand.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN — It’s, Hong, — haven’t, ” Nomura, , Li Qiang, , Li Yunze, Pan Gongsheng, Florence Lo, HSI, Raymond Yeung, ” Yeung Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Shanghai Shenzhen, , Shanghai Financial Exchange, Bloomberg, State, Supervision, Administration Commission, Administration of Financial, Reuters, People’s Bank of China, Citi, Enodo Economics, HSBC, Greater China, ANZ Research Locations: China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, United States, Beijing, Davos, Switzerland, Greater
HONG KONG (AP) — Asian shares were mostly higher on Monday, with Tokyo extending its New Year rally, as China’s central bank kept its one-year policy loan interest rate unchanged. China’s central bank opted to keep its one-year policy loan interest rate at 2.5% on Monday while injecting funds into the financial system. Traders are largely betting on the Fed cutting its main interest rate six or more times through 2024. The airline and other travel-related companies were also hurt by a rise in oil prices, which put pressure on their fuel costs. A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude oil rose 10 cents to $72.78.
Persons: Zhaopeng Xing, Raymond Yeung, , Ernie, Baidu, Lai Ching, Lai, Taiwan’s Taiex, Australia’s, It's, Yemen’s Houthi, Brent Organizations: ANZ, Baidu, Democratic Progressive Party, Dow Jones, UnitedHealth Group, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Traders, Fed, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Cruise Line Holdings, U.S Locations: HONG KONG, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, South Korea, China, Taiwan
China has an inflation problem. It’s way too low
  + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
That’s raising the specter of a tailspin of falling prices and wages from which the economy may struggle to recover. “Our core view is that China’s economy is deflationary,” wrote Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at ANZ Research, last week, soon after China released its first-quarter GDP growth figures. Instead of spending money, people are hoarding cash at a record rate. “Even with a conservative estimate, 500 billion yuan in consumption vouchers will drive one trillion yuan in overall consumption, ” Li said in a video posted on his Weibo social media account on Tuesday. In return, the government could receive at least 300 billion yuan through taxes generated by the increase in spending, he said“So it only takes 200 billion yuan in spending for the central government to drive one trillion yuan in consumption,” he said.
Apple’s savings account is managed through Apple products and users must have Apple’s credit card, simply called Apple Card, to qualify for one. “It’s very much a loyalty play because it’s a multi-level process: To get the Apple credit card you need the phone, and to get the savings account you need the credit card. The Apple savings account through Goldman is also insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. And Apple’s savings account is hardly the best out there, either. UFB Direct offers a savings account with more than a 5% annual percentage yield.
But private investment barely budged and youth unemployment surged to the second highest level on record, indicating the country’s private sector employers are still wary about longer term prospects. Retail sales jumped 10.6% in March from a year earlier, the highest level of growth since June 2021. The country’s GDP will grow 5.2% this year and 5.1% in 2024, it predicted. If adjustments are made to account for the impact of delayed economic activity, GDP growth in the first quarter could have been just 2.6%, he said. For example, private investment was extremely weak.
Burberry (BBRYF) said last month that it’s seeing “very promising” signs in China, according to Reuters. Since real estate accounts for 70% of household wealth in China, “revenge spending” will be limited, analysts said. They expect household consumption growth to rebound to 9.5% in 2023 from about 3% in 2022, fueling annual GDP growth of more than 5%. Morgan Stanley analysts expect to see some “revenge spending” mostly from household with stable incomes. They’re expecting household consumption growth to rebound to 8.5% in 2023, contributing to full-year economic growth of 5.7%.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSome of China's policies have failed to help property sales rebound, says economistRaymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at ANZ, discusses the effects of China's zero-Covid policy on its economy and its recent decision to ease some restrictions.
Exports likely rose 4.3% last month from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 20 economists in the poll, slowing from a 5.7% pace in September. "The tepid outlook for global supply chains does not bode well for China's exports," said Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at ANZ. "In addition to slowing global demand amid a likely global recession, we note export orders normally sent to China are being diverted to other emerging market economies." Combined with a high base of comparison from last year, Barclays forecast China's exports could fall 2-5% in 2023. The weak trade forecasts implied that China's trade surplus would widen to $95.95 billion from 84.74 billion in September.
"The tepid outlook for global supply chains does not bode well for China's exports," said Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at ANZ. "In addition to slowing global demand amid a likely global recession, we note export orders normally sent to China are being diverted to other emerging market economies." Combined with a high base of comparison from last year, Barclays forecast China's exports could fall 2-5% in 2023. read moreImports were forecast to have risen just 0.1% from a year earlier, the poll showed, compared with a 0.3% gain in September. The weak trade forecasts implied that China's trade surplus would widen to $95.95 billion from 84.74 billion in September.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomist says he doesn't expect China's economy to return to 5% growth any time soonRaymond Yeung of ANZ says the firm sees China's GDP growth slowing and projects 4.2% growth in 2023.
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